{"id":1792,"date":"2020-05-22T11:30:15","date_gmt":"2020-05-22T11:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/idronline.org\/2020\/12\/23\/whats-next-for-agriculture-in-india\/"},"modified":"2025-11-10T17:40:29","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T12:10:29","slug":"whats-next-for-agriculture-in-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/idronline.org\/kn-in\/whats-next-for-agriculture-in-india\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s next for agriculture in India?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As a result of the rapid spread of COVID-19, global and domestic economies have taken a hit due to the lockdown of economic activities. GDP forecasts for 2020 have been revised downwards, from roughly three percent<\/a> to negative three percent<\/a> globally, and from roughly six percent<\/a> to two percent<\/a> in India.<\/p>

Within the country, the government implemented a nationwide lockdown from March 25th to contain COVID-19’s spread. While some sources predict a rapid recovery starting in 2021<\/a>, we expect a much longer downturn, lasting 18-24 months, driven by the need for an interim stop-start economy. In general, three main post-lockdown scenarios are possible, each with different economic implications:<\/p>

1. Containment by September 2020:<\/strong> This is the best-case scenario, where COVID-19 is contained through a scientific breakthrough such as the development of a vaccine or scalable treatment, and we experience a sharp drop and quick resurgence in economic activity.<\/p>

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2. Stop-start containment until March 2021:<\/strong> This is the most likely scenario, in which India’s economy is selectively opened, and re-closed periodically to contain the spread. Similar to the containment scenario, the pandemic will be resolved through a scientific breakthrough, but this breakthrough does not emerge before December 2020 (or later). Here, India is expected to see an extended period of dampened economic activity before recovery.<\/p>

3. No containment until 2023-2024:<\/strong> This is the worst-case scenario, which assumes that no scientific breakthrough is established in the medium-term, and no further containment measures are taken. The pandemic’s resolution relies exclusively on herd immunity (via contraction and recovery), and implies a long economic downturn (until 2024 at least), and high mortality count.<\/p>

Through all of these scenarios, agricultural crop production is an essential business and is expected to continue operations. However, producers will face heightened challenges, including reduced demand, supply chain disruptions, lower availability of farm labour, and price volatility leading to stressed farmer economics. Although the government has launched interventions to reinforce food security, relief efforts to date are insufficient<\/a>.<\/p>

Additional support is needed to bolster the livelihoods of agricultural workers, who make up 58 percent of India’s population<\/a>. We anticipate farming households producing high-value cash crops such as fruits and vegetables to require the greatest support, as these crops tend to be highly perishable, and therefore, more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and reduced demand.<\/p>

India’s agricultural sector is projected to see a significant reduction in supply, demand, and value that persists through 2022.<\/p><\/blockquote>

To identify appropriate agricultural interventions, TechnoServe<\/a>—the international nonprofit where we work—conducted a 24-month projection<\/a> to assess COVID-19’s impact on agricultural supply, demand, price, value, and farmer income. Forecasts were performed for more than 160 crops across fruits, vegetables, cereals, pulses, oilseeds, fibres, spices, plantation crops, and floriculture. These forecasts provide directional insight on specific crop categories and geographies that are likely to experience the greatest adverse impact due to COVID-19.<\/p>

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Under a stop-start containment and U-shaped recovery (scenario two), India’s agricultural sector is projected to see a significant reduction in supply, demand, and value that persists through 2022.<\/p>

Related article: The future of rural India post-COVID-19<\/strong><\/a><\/p>

Supply-side disruptions<\/strong><\/h3>

Aggregate crop supply is expected to decline by 470 million metric tons between 2020 and 2022, with an 11 percent decline versus baseline projections in 2020, a nine percent decline in 2021, and a six percent decline in 2022. This decline will be driven by:<\/p>